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Five Emerging Terrorism Trends Security Professionals Must Anticipate

Scott Stewart
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What drives terrorism? It's a question asked by governments, individuals, militaries and businesses. Terrorist tactics and tradecraft constantly evolve to respond to external forces that enable, constrain and otherwise shape them.

Tracking the influential forces that shape terrorism is crucial to understanding how attacks are conducted and placing an attack in context. But most importantly, understanding the drivers of terrorism helps security professionals anticipate terrorism trends so they can train their teams and deploy assets accordingly. With this in mind, I want to briefly discuss the main drivers I track to forecast terrorist dynamics and then discuss five terrorism trends I believe will arise in the next few years because of these factors.

Five Main Drivers Of Terrorism

1. Past Attacks: The tactics used in past attacks and the security force response to them have long driven terrorist trends. Perhaps this has been best illustrated by the long, evolving history of terrorist tactics used in attacks against aircraft – and the corresponding security measures enacted in the wake of successful or failed attacks.

2. Media Coverage: Since the advent of modern terrorism, attacks have been considered a form of propaganda, “propaganda of the deed” as the early anarchist terrorists referred to them. Media coverage of terrorist attacks magnify the impact of an attack, is considered critical for recruiting new followers to the terrorist’s cause and for is also useful for inspiring copycat attacks.

3. Terrorist Ideology: A group’s ideology dictates a wide range of factors from target selection to the tactics used in attacks. The permissibility of conducting suicide attacks and of creating civilian casualties are just two examples of ideological factors that help shape terrorist dynamics.

4. Technology: Obviously the miniaturisation of electronics has vastly changed bomb making tradecraft – and at the same time increased the ability for authorities to scan for explosives. Beyond that, technology has also dramatically changed the way terrorist organizations conduct surveillance, communicate, produce propaganda and move funds.

A group’s ideology dictates
a wide range of factors from target selection to the tactics used in attacks

5. Politics: Von Clausewitz called war the continuation of politics by other means and as a form of warfare, terrorism is inherently political. Because of this, politics have always played an important role in shaping terrorist trends. For example, the political upheaval created by the so-called Arab Spring had wide ranging terrorism repercussions across the Middle East.

Five Emerging Trends

Based on these drivers, we can expect to see the following five terrorism trends grow and evolve over the next few years.

1. Resurgence of domestic terrorism in the U.S. and Europe

The current highly polarised political environment in Europe and the United States with rising nationalism, distrust of government and conflict over a number of social issues, will lead to a resurgence in terrorism from both the extreme left and extreme right.

The immigration issue has energized ultranationalist and white supremacist groups on both sides of the Atlantic. At the same time we see a resurgence of anarchism and other extreme left ideologies. As a result, we are entering another cycle of domestic political violence such as that seen in the 1970s and more briefly in the late 1990s. Also, just like in those past periods, there are external actors fanning the flames. Russia is particularly active in this regard.

2. Escalation of simple jihadist attacks in the West

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s 2009 call for grassroots jihadists living in the West to conduct simple attacks in countries where they live – an approach later adopted by the Islamic State in Sept 2014 – has led to a dramatic increase in these types of attacks. This has been clearly noted in the current wave of vehicular assaults.

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) has garnered a great deal of attention
We continue to believe that it will be some time before terrorist actors in the West will be able to create effective improvised weaponised drones

Jihadists began conducting vehicular assaults in the early 2000’s but the tactic has become far more widely employed following the deadly and highly publicised truck attack in Nice, France in July of 2016. A similar trend has occurred with knife attacks and armed assaults, and as the Islamic State loses its core territory in Syria and Iraq, it and al Qaeda are doubling down on calls for these attacks. Given the intense media they have generated, even small-scale attacks are being considered a success and trumpeted by the jihadists. Simple attacks are the “new normal” now.

3. Increasing use of drones

While the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) in lethal attacks by non-state actors such as the Islamic State and Hezbollah has garnered a great deal of attention, we continue to believe that it will be some time before terrorist actors in the West will be able to create effective improvised weaponised drones. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t try, and I expect to see plots or botched attacks in the coming year involving drones even if they are likely to create more panic than results.

The rapidly increasing number of items connected to the Internet will provide terrorists with far more
attack space

4. Online University of Terrorism

One drawback of the embrace of the leaderless resistance model of terrorism by jihadists, anarchists and white supremacists is that it makes it more difficult for would-be terrorists to get training in terrorist tradecraft. Due to advances in technology, people can now receive training in a number of different things over video conferencing links.

I expect terrorist trainers to take advantage of this technology to provide training in skills such as bomb making via encrypted video chat rooms on the Darknet. Inspire Magazine has helped equip many do-it-yourself terrorists to conduct attacks and interactive training sessions with master terrorists will help them become even more deadly.

5. Real cyber terrorism

To date, the terrorist offensive activity on the Internet has been confined mostly to cracking passwords; defacing websites or social media accounts; and providing personal information on military members, police officers and other potential targets.

However, the rapidly increasing number of items connected to the Internet, everything from cars to industrial control systems, will provide terrorists with far more attack space. I believe that we will soon see cyber terrorism become deadly through a targeted cyber attack on a hospital, utility or other critical node.

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Scott Stewart
Scott Stewart Vice President, Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

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New Pelco CEO Optimistic About Iconic Company’s Path Forward
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Kurt Takahashi, the new CEO of Pelco, says he will provide collaborative leadership to help build the Pelco team, work together hand-in-hand with team members, remove barriers and lead the company forward. He brings industry experience and relationships to the new post that will translate into new opportunities. Takahashi joins Pelco from AMAG Technology, where he served as President for the last couple of years. Earlier, he had stints at ADT, Tyco and Quantum Secure, where he was Global Vice President of Sales and Marketing. “This was an opportunity to join a brand that has deep, rich and far-reaching history,” says Takahashi. “I couldn’t resist the opportunity to come into a company such as Pelco and be able to make a difference.” Improving the fundamentals Takahashi acknowledges that Pelco has slipped in the last 10 years from its position as a market-leading brand. To address the situation going forward, the company must “improve fundamental things,” he says. Those fundamentals include keeping the customer first, putting the right people in the right roles, and executing technical support well. Keeping the customer first, putting the right people in the right roles, and executing technical support well  “We have to provide customer service from when we receive an order, to acknowledging it, to processing it and shipping the order,” says Takahashi. “Another piece is to deliver revisions to a product in a faster time period and introduce new products to the market in a timely way. In terms of market presence, we learn that people haven’t really heard from Pelco in a while. We have to get in front of integrators and consultants more aggressively than we have in the past.”   “It’s up to us to prove that we belong and can sustain and support customers moving forward,” he adds. “We will get new opportunities, but we will need to execute them. If we do that, we will grow.” Brand optimism Takahashi sees more reasons for optimism. “In spite of the problems, we are a big company with thousands of customers, a massive footprint, 10 offices around the world and people in over 40 countries. We are a strong, known brand around the world. These are a great foundation to grow from; we just have to execute better.” These are a great foundation to grow from; we just have to execute better Pelco’s new parent company, Transcom Capital Group, was another reason Takahashi was attracted to the position. He says Transom is led by “amazing professionals” that specialize in “transformational culture and how to diffuse best practices in an organization.” At Pelco, Transom has already led surveys, workshops and focus groups throughout the organization to create a vision, mission and values covering how the company wants to present itself in the market. From those values will emanate new process and policy improvements to move the company in the right direction. New visions and missions The company’s new, collectively developed vision is “to make the world safer.” The mission is “to deliver distinctive video solutions and world-class customer experiences.” The company’s new, collectively developed vision is “to make the world safer.” The company’s culture is built on six values: innovation and excellence, customer focus, integrity, respect and recognition, collaboration, and ownership. “We believe this is what will help drive our culture moving forward, and it’s the mindset of all of us as one team with one goal that will give us something to be proud of,” says Takahashi. “As we move into the new era of Pelco, you will see excitement internally and externally,” he adds “Everybody’s really eager to see Pelco come back and be a significant player.” Three horizons to success The idea is to look inward and improve on the current, successful product lines Takahashi sees three horizons that summarize the company’s path to future success. The first horizon is to focus on the fundamentals of what the company does today. The idea is to look inward and improve on the current, successful product lines, such as the VideoXpert video system and on-board video analytics. The second horizon will be to look at ways to advance the current feature set, whether “to build, partner or buy.” Building partnerships will be part of that success, such as the partnerships they are already building with Briefcam and Anyvision. The third horizon will be to expand their innovation, based on feedback from end users, dealers and consultants. “I want to get very deeply connected with our customer base,” says Takahashi. “Are we on the right path? Should we explore other partner relationships? We need to bring those minds together to expand our vision.” The focus should be on solving three business problems – mitigating risk, ensuring compliance and saving money. Looking ahead to ISC West in the spring, Takahashi expects Pelco to emerge as a more proactive company that is eager to engage. “We have a lot of stories to communicate, and we have not been as active as we should,” he says.

Which Security Markets Are Likely To Embrace The Cloud?
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Cloud applications are an everyday facet of business these days, exemplified by systems such as Office 365, Salesforce.com and Dropbox. The physical security market is also embracing the cloud after overcoming some initial concerns and thanks to improvements in cloud offerings. We asked this week’s Expert Panel Roundtable: Which security markets are likely to embrace the cloud?

Can AI Video Analytics Ever Really Be Intelligent?
Can AI Video Analytics Ever Really Be Intelligent?

Video surveillance is commonly associated with security. But in most cases, it's used to record incidents and assist in investigations after the fact rather than prevent undesirable events. Artificial intelligence–powered video analytics is a highly promising trend that fundamentally changes the way things work. Extracting manageable data from a video stream can help recognize risky situations early on, minimizing damage and, ideally, completely avoid emergencies. At the same time, AI significantly expands the areas of application of video surveillance beyond security systems. AI significantly expands the areas of application of video surveillance beyond security systems However, the hype around this new, trendy technology prevents the potential user from choosing quality solutions in a wide variety of products. This often leads to over-expectation, followed by a complete let-down. Can AI-powered video analytics really be the key to a technological breakthrough in video surveillance? We'll take a look at what the technology can do, what it can't, and where it can go from here. Technological breakthrough or just another bubble? It's often said that the video management software (VMS) market is becoming increasingly commoditized and widely available. A lot of products with similar features (or, at least, similar promises from the manufacturer) make it hard to choose. As a result, vendor names and reputations are turning into one of their primary selling points. Manufacturers have two choices available: get wrapped up in a price war and rely on cutting expenses, or offer a product that's truly innovative and revolutionary. Manufacturers have two choices available: get wrapped up in a price war, or offer a product that's truly innovative and revolutionary VMS developers who choose the second route are gravitating towards creating products that use artificial intelligence based on neural networks and deep learning. Emerging two or three years ago, the AI video analytics market is experiencing a boom in growth. This new tech wave has stirred the still, stagnant backwaters of the VMS world and gave small, ambitious developers something to be optimistic about. It seems they now have a chance to emerge as market leaders in the next few years. However, the hype around this popular trend is raising reasonable concerns among experienced security industry professionals. These concerns come from clients looking for a solution to their problems, and from suppliers building a long-term development strategy. This largely resembles another tech bubble, like the one built up around pre-AI video analytics and burst when it became clear that the sensational promises around it were pure marketing hype (and rather unscrupulously so). However, there are a lot of factors that indicate that AI-powered video surveillance systems aren't another bubble. The three factors The first — and the main one — comes from systems already in place on customers' sites. They fulfill the same promises made during the previous bubble by hotheads in a rush to teach the computer to analyze events in real time using a classical algorithmic approach. The second is the fact that this new technology has seen investment from not only software and cloud startups, but also established VMS developers. Even giants like Intel, which has presented a full line of neural network accelerator hardware and a set of software tools that streamlines working with them, specifically in the field of computer vision. This new technology has seen investment from not only software and cloud startups, but also established VMS developers The third factor lies in artificial intelligence's abilities. AI plays chess, drives cars, and works wonders in many other fields. Why shouldn't it be applied to video monitoring and analysis? What AI can do Just what can artificial intelligence do in video surveillance systems at this stage of development? It can't quite analyze a sequence of events and understand the "logic" of what's happening in the cameras' field of view. At least not yet. But it's probable that AI will learn to do this in the next few years. But neural network analytics can already detect, classify, and track objects very well, providing high accuracy even in busy scenes. Artificial intelligence can be used in the real world to: detect smoke and flames for early fire warning at open areas (forest, open warehouse, parking lot, etc.); distinguish people/vehicles from animals and other moving objects, e.g. to protect the perimeter of a nature park from poachers; distinguish a person in a helmet and protective clothing from a person without them to prevent accidents at a dangerous production facility or construction site; count objects of a specific type, e.g. cars in a parking lot, people in the sales floor, wares moving on a conveyor belt, etc. in non-security-related solutions. Those are just a few examples. After training a neural network, it can tackle other, similar tasks, too. Generally, a neural network trained in specific conditions isn't replicable. In other words, it won't work as well under different conditions. On the other hand, developers have learned how to quickly train AI for the needs of a specific project. The most important requirement is having enough video footage. Somewhat apart from that is the use of neural networks in facial and automatic number-plate recognition. This is an example of reproducible neural networks (train once, deploy everywhere), which makes them more appealing commercially. If non-reproducible neural networks have only recently become economically feasible due to the rapid evolution of specialized hardware (aforementioned Intel's product, for example), then the use of AI in facial recognition and ANPR has been well established for a long time. The use of AI in facial recognition and ANPR has been well established for a long time Another kind of AI analytics that we'll explore is behavior analytics. This function, probably more than any other, is bringing video surveillance systems closer to understanding what's happening on camera. Its potential is vast. How Behavior Analytics Works From a technical point of view, behavior analytics combines artificial intelligence with a classic algorithmic approach. A neural network trained on a multitude of scenarios can determine the position of the bodies, heads, and limbs of humans in the camera's field of view. The algorithm outputs an array of data containing descriptions of their poses. Conditions can be set for data to detect a specific pose, such as raised hands, prostrated or crouching persons. Developers can use this to quickly create new detection tools to identify potentially dangerous behavior specified by a government or business client. There's no need for additional training of the neural network. How Behavior Analytics Can Be Deployed Someone crouched down next to an ATM could be a technician, CIT guard, or burglar. Bank security should be notified in any of the cases. A person in shooter position, together with a bank employee or cashier with their hands raised could indicate a robbery. The system can be configured to automatically send alerts with a surveillance snapshot to the police so they can assess the threat and take action if needed. It's vital that the police receive the alert, even if the employee is unable to activate the alarm. In many cases, attention should be directed to a prostrate individual. This could be somebody who needs immediate help, or it could be someone sleeping in an inappropriate public place, for example, a 24/7 ATM space. Behavioral analytics can also be used to ensure workplace safety. For example, tracking whether employees are holding the handrails when using the stairs at a manufacturing facility or a construction site. What Now? Behavior analytics can be deployed wherever your clients' imagination takes them. With this feature, practically any pose that indicates potentially dangerous behavior can be detected. Timely response to an alarm helps avoid material damages or, in other situations, casualties. Practically any pose that indicates potentially dangerous behavior can be detected An area of potential development for behavior analytics is the ability to analyze a sequence of poses by the same person or a combination of poses and relative positions of several individuals. That will be the next level of evolution in AI's use in video surveillance: moving from "detecting" to "understanding" behavior in real time. In its most basic form, this type of analytics can be deployed to detect deviations from the search procedure in correctional facilities when a person being inspected must assume a pre-defined sequence of poses. A more advanced form allows it to detect any kind of abnormal behavior, such as a brawl breaking out in a public space. Ideally, behavior analytics can predict dangerous situations based on nearly imperceptible cues gleaned from collected statistics and a Big Data analysis. At the moment, this sounds like pure fantasy, but what seemed like whimsy not too long ago is now a reality with AI. It's already beaten humans in chess and the game of Go (Weiqi). Will artificial intelligence be able to outplay humans at charades one day? It's entirely possible that we'll soon see for ourselves.

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