WatchGuard has disclosed its six key cybersecurity predictions for the year 2026, highlighting the transformative effects of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven threats, increasing regulatory demands, and the obsolescence of outdated security measures.
Corey Nachreiner, Chief Security Officer at WatchGuard Technologies, stresses the necessity for organizations to brace themselves for quick changes in attack techniques and defense mechanisms.
Crypto-Ransomware Evolution
By 2026, traditional crypto-ransomware is expected to fade away as cyber attackers shift focus from encryption to data theft and extortion. Advancements in data backup and recovery capabilities now allow organizations to recuperate from ransomware incidents without succumbing to extortion demands.
Consequently, cybercriminals will resort to stealing data, using threats of public exposure or reports to regulatory bodies to apply pressure. Encryption’s value diminishes as the threat now lies in the potential for data exposure.
AI-Powered Defense for Open-Source Repositories
Open-source repositories are projected to implement AI-driven security solutions to counter increasing supply chain
The security vulnerabilities faced by open-source package repositories like NPM and PyPI have highlighted the escalating threat landscape. Traditional security measures are no longer effective. In response, open-source repositories are projected to implement AI-driven security solutions to counter increasing supply chain attacks by 2026.
These automated systems will allow real-time detection and response, positioning these repositories to better defend against persistent threats.
Impact of the EU Cyber Resilience Act
The enactment of the EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) in 2026 is anticipated to dramatically influence secure-by-design adoption. Beginning in September 2026, software providers to the EU must report exploited vulnerabilities and security incidents within 24 hours.
This aggressive timeline is expected to initially cause disruption as companies adjust, revealing more security gaps. However, it will also incentivize embedding security features during product development to comply with growing, sometimes conflicting, global regulations.
AI's Role in Cyber Breaches
For effective defense, organizations must employ AI-driven tools mirroring the velocity of such advanced threats
2026 will witness a pivotal moment as AI tools move from assisting cybercriminals to executing attacks independently. Following a 2025 prediction by WatchGuard, AI tools will complete entire cyberattacks autonomously. From scanning for vulnerabilities to executing data exfiltration, AI systems operate at speeds that challenge current defense methods.
The emergence of an AI-executed breach will alert security experts to the rapid development of AI from supportive tools to independent operators. For effective defense, organizations must employ AI-driven tools mirroring the velocity of such advanced threats.
Shift from VPNs to ZTNA
Legacy Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and remote access tools face heightened risk as attackers exploit credential weaknesses and lack of multi-factor authentication. In 2026, a projected third of breaches will arise from VPN and remote access misconfigurations. The reliance on secure VPNs is minimized if attackers can masquerade as authorized users.
This risk is prompting small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to adopt Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA) solutions, which eliminate exposure of vulnerable VPN ports and tailor user access to essential services, minimizing potential breaches and damage.
AI Proficiency as a Cybersecurity Necessity
As cyber offense and defense increasingly occur on an AI-powered stage, understanding AI will become critical for cybersecurity professionals. Automated, adaptive, and self-learning tools are already in use by attackers. To counter these threats, security experts need to master AI technology, utilizing it to automate responses and foresee emerging vulnerabilities.
By the following year, AI proficiency will become a required asset, with employers seeking professionals capable of leveraging AI effectively within cybersecurity operations.
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WatchGuard has revealed its top six cybersecurity predictions for 2026, forecasting a year where AI-driven threats, regulatory pressures, and the decline of legacy tools will reshape the security landscape.
Corey Nachreiner, chief security officer at WatchGuard Technologies, emphasizes that organizations must prepare for rapid evolution in both attack methods and defensive strategies.
Crypto-ransomware goes extinct
In 2026, crypto-ransomware will effectively go extinct, as threat actors abandon encryption and focus on data theft and extortion. Organizations have significantly improved their data backup and restoration capabilities, meaning they’re more likely to recover from a traditional crypto-ransomware attack without having to pay the extortion demands.
Instead, cyber criminals simply steal data, threaten to leak it and even report victims to regulators or insurance companies to increase pressure. Encryption no longer pays off; the real leverage will now come from exposure.
OSS box indexes will leverage AI to defend against supply chain attacks
If the surge of attacks against open-source package repositories like NPM and PyPI has taught security teams anything, it’s that open source is under siege. It’s a losing battle and traditional security controls, such as tighter authentication and shorter token lifetimes, can’t keep up.
In 2026, open-source package repositories will adopt automated, AI-driven defenses to fight back against a growing wave of supply chain attacks. To keep up with this significant and persistent threat, these repositories will become early adopters of automated SOC-style systems for their own applications, enabling them to detect and respond to attacks in real-time.
CRA reporting needs finally incentivize secure by design principals
In 2026, the EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) will finally become the market force that drives adoption of secure-by-design principles. With the first phase going into effect in September 2026, software manufacturers selling into the EU must report actively exploited vulnerabilities and security incidents within 24 hours. This is the most aggressive reporting requirement yet.
While the initial rollout will likely be chaotic as companies scramble to comply and more of their weaknesses are exposed, it will ultimately create a lasting incentive to build security into products from the start. At the same time, overlapping global regulations will reveal competing frameworks and contradictions, forcing organizations to navigate an increasingly complex web of compliance.
First breach carried out by autonomous, agentic AI tools in 2026
In 2025, WatchGuard predicted that multi-modal AI tools would be able to carry out every aspect of the attackers’ cyber kill chain, which proved to be true. 2026 will mark the year AI stops just assisting cybercriminals and starts attacking on its own. From reconnaissance and vulnerability scanning to lateral movement and exfiltration, these autonomous systems can orchestrate an entire breach at machine speed.
The first end-to-end AI-executed breach will serve as a wake-up call for defenders who have underestimated the speed at which generative and reasoning AIs evolve from tools into operators. The same capabilities that help businesses automate security workflows are being weaponised to outpace them. Organizations must fight fire with fire: only AI-driven defense tools that detect, analyze and remediate at the same velocity as attacker AIs will stand a chance.
The fall of VPN and remote access tools will lead to the rise of ZTNA
Traditional Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and remote access tools are among the top targets for attackers due to the loss, theft, and reuse of credentials, combined with the common lack of multi-factor authentication (MFA). It doesn’t matter how secure VPNs are from a technical perspective; if an attacker can log in as one of your trusted users, the VPN becomes a backdoor giving them access to all your resources by default.
At least one-third of 2026 breaches will be due to weaknesses and misconfigurations in legacy remote access and VPN tools. Threat actors have specifically targeted VPN access ports over the past two years, either stealing users’ credentials or exploiting vulnerabilities in specific VPN products.
As a result, 2026 will also be the year when SMBs begin to operationalize ZTNA tools because it removes the need to expose a potentially vulnerable VPN port to the internet. The ZTNA provider takes ownership of securing the service through their cloud platform, and ZTNA does not give every user access to every internal network. Rather, it allows you to grant individual user groups access to only the internal services they need to perform their jobs, thereby limiting the potential damage.
AI expertise becomes a required skill for cybersecurity
It's nearly the dawn of a new era where cyber offense and defense will take place on an AI battleground. Attackers are already experimenting with automated, adaptive and self-learning tools. Defenders who can’t match that level of speed and precision will be outgunned before they know they’re under fire.
To survive, security professionals must go beyond simple understanding of AI toward mastery of its capabilities and harness it to automate detection and response while anticipating the new vulnerabilities it creates. By next year, AI literacy won’t just be a nice addition to a résumé, it’ll be table stakes, with interviewers diving in on practical applications of AI for cyber defense.
